2025 Yearly Ocean Freight Market Trends: U.S. Container Trade Imbalance and Tariff Policy Impact

In 2024, the U.S. will import 2.4 times more reefer containers than it exports. This shows that since the import tariffs started in 2018, they haven’t really helped reduce the U.S. trade imbalance. From 2017 to 2024, the total import volume of containers in the United States grew by 24%, while the export volume decreased by 8%. China remains the largest origin country for U.S. imports, accounting for 41% of the total container imports in 2024. Tariff policies have cut China’s share a bit, but container imports from China are up by 6.6% since 2017. Additionally, on February 1, 2025, the newly elected U.S. president announced a 10% import tariff on Chinese goods, which took effect on February 4, 2025. The removal of the minimum tax rate for goods under $800 from China was set for February 4, 2025, but it has been postponed. The uncertainty of these new policies is expected to continue affecting the U.S. supply chain dynamics.

The “Red Sea crisis” and the post-Christmas effect have greatly impacted international freight volumes and prices. On the China—U.S. route, market demand remains weak as industries recover gradually after the Chinese New Year. Shipping companies are still attempting to increase spot rates. In early 2025, alliances began to restructure. This change caused a big rise in blank sailings. About 20% of the market’s capacity is now affected. As a result, shipping schedules are unstable. Ports like Savannah, Charleston, and Montreal in the U.S. and Canada have light congestion. In contrast, Vancouver, Canada, is dealing with a 12-day rail delay. On the China—Latin America route, the market is slowly bouncing back from the post-Christmas lull. Shipping companies are working to raise spot rates, but demand is still unclear. Congestion at Brazilian ports is still an issue. Some Caribbean ports are facing delays too. This results in longer arrival times for ships. The SCFI index for the China—Europe route has fallen sharply. This shows weak market conditions. Due to reports from clients that demand recovery will not begin until early March, FAK rates have dropped sharply. The price for 40-foot standard containers at major European ports is currently between 2,300 and 2,500 per container. The price war expected in February is likely to intensify. Shipping companies like Hapag-Lloyd want to raise GRI rates in early March. They hope this will help stabilize prices and lessen the effects of falling prices. However, without sufficient layups to support these increases, it is unlikely that the expected effects will be achieved.